Sarah Zaman: For the first time since Donald Trump became president, Americans vote in a national election --- this time, to decide control of Congress.

I am Sara Zaman

In the next 30 minutes, we will examine the major themes and storylines that are shaping American politics going into this midterm election.

What makes the midterm elections special is that it is hundreds of local elections over local issues, some of which are common throughout the nation. But no one candidate is on everybody’s ballot.

At stake:

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives. These lower-house legislators are elected every two years. Right now, the Republican Party holds a 42-seat advantage over the Democratic Party, 235-to-193.

In the upper house, one-third of 100 Senators face the voters every two years.  At the moment, Republicans have a 2-vote margin, 51-49.

And right now, Republicans also control the White House, electing Donald Trump president just two years ago.

Why are these elections so important?

With control of Congress and the White House, Republicans have been able to have their way on issues such as immigration, foreign policy and foreign aid.

If Democrats get control of one or both Congress’ houses, they could try to change policy by spending money differently and start investigating Trump administration policies.

Sarah Zaman: Here to help analyze the political landscape is VOA National Correspondent Jim Malone. Jim has covered American politics for VOA since President Bill Clinton’s election in 1992. Jim, I’m very glad to have you here because you know so much about American politics.

Now, as we just explained, Republicans look like they are in a good spot. They control Congress, they have control of the White House, but, if we look at historical trends, the road ahead is quite uncertain, even for them.

Jim Malone: It is uncertain, Sarah, and there are great historical reasons for this. We’ve had 17 midterm congressional elections since 1950, for example, and the average number of House seats lost for the [sitting] president’s party is 24. It just so happens that this year, Democrats need to gain 23 [seats] in the House of Representatives to re-take the majority. Of all those elections, by the way, only two elections went the [sitting] president’s way, in that his party did not lose seats; that was in 2002 and 1998.

Now, we know the country is divided over a number of issues, be it immigration, the economy, any approaches to foreign policy that you can take issue with, but there is one thing we seem to notice for this midterm election, that both Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on. And that is, the central issue is in fact, President Donald Trump.

((ROLL MALONE PACKAGE))

((NARRATOR))

For President Donald Trump, this year's midterm elections are personal.

((PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP))

"All of this extraordinary progress is at stake.  It is at stake.  I am not on the ballot.  But in a certain way, I am on the ballot, so please, go out and vote.  Go out and vote."

((NARRATOR))

But as much as Trump motivates his core supporters, he also energizes critics like Jenny Heinz.

((JENNY HEINZ, PROTESTOR))

"There is an active resistance to this president who is operating as if he is above the law."

((NARRATOR))

Trump is the central figure in this year's election, says American University analyst David Barker.

((DAVID BARKER, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY))

"Yes, Democrats from the day after the election in 2016 have been waiting for this day, and it is all about Trump.  ((EDIT))  Trump fully embraces that.  He wants it to be all about him."

((NARRATOR))

Trump has accelerated a trend to nationalize congressional elections, says Lara Brown.

((LARA BROWN, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY))

"It really is now all national and everyone is kind of looking at this as either a referendum for or against the president and his party."

((NARRATOR))

For Trump and his base, it makes sense, says former Trump strategist Steve Bannon.

((STEVE BANNON, FORMER TRUMP ADVISER))

"I think if you make this a national referendum and nationalize this election on the success of President Trump's program, it is a clear winner and I think the Democrats get crushed."

((NARRATOR))

But others are skeptical, including former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele.

((ON SCREEN COURTESY:  PLUGGED IN))

((MICHAEL STEELE, FORMER RNC CHAIR))

"Alright, fine, you want it to be about you?  Well, every candidate on the ballot now has to account for your behavior, has to account for your tweets."

((NARRATOR))

Trump is likely to generate higher Democratic turnout, says Maryland Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger.

((ON SCREEN COURTESY:  PLUGGED IN))

((REP. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER, DEMOCRAT))

"When all you do is care about yourself and not about people, not about what they need, like your seniors needing medical care, and you just want to look good and knock them out (politically), which is happening, this is hurting.  And this is why, I think, a lot of people will come out (to vote)."

((NARRATOR))

But the president does not seem to be worried, preferring instead to rally his own supporters, says Gallup pollster Frank Newport.

((FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLLING))

"He has kind of given up on attempting to broaden his appeal it looks like.  It fits more with his style.  He has, as we all know, a very combative style.  He likes to have enemies because that gives him somebody to fight against, so it would be hard for a president like Trump anyway to try to broaden his appeal."

Jim Malone: Now, Donald Trump's name will not appear on the November 6th election ballots.  But the results could determine the future of his presidency. Sarah?

Sarah Zaman: Thank you, Jim. And now, I would like to bring in VOA White House Bureau Chief for Voice of America, Steve Herman. Steve, thank you so much for joining us. You have been covering President Trump since the day he was elected, you have seen him on the domestic policy trail, you’ve seen him on overseas trips. What I want to know is now that he is campaigning for other candidates from the Republican Party, what’s the energy like when he takes the stage? How does the crowd respond to him?

Steve Herman, VOA White House Bureau Chief: You really don’t get the full effect watching on television, I can tell you that. Being in these arenas; sometimes they are county fairgrounds. The people that are there are there because they really want to be there because they see Donald Trump as their political rock star and the reaction is very much like that. And also, it’s similar to being at some sort of, what we have in America, big time wrestling; it’s a staged wrestling match. And there’s good guys and bad guys, and Trump is obviously the good guy and the Democrats are the bad guys and obviously, the Democrats aren’t in the arena, but the other bad guys are the media, and we’re there, so there is some tension, but most of it is good-natured and the only time there’s any real drama is for the occasional demonstrator getting in there, and then summarily being kicked out. So, it’s quite entertaining.

Sarah Zaman: Jim, we saw something in your package, and I want to take both of your views on what Michael Steele was saying, that if you make the election about yourself, the President, then every candidate has to account for what you say. Now when we look at numbers, President Trump’s approval ratings is about 44, 45% right now. Among Republicans, he has a solid lead, 88%. But when we look at independents, his approval ratings are about 36%. So when a Republican candidate is trying to get attention from these Independents, what does President Trump’s endorsement for such a candidate mean?

Jim Malone: Most of the appeals in this campaign and in the past few years have been directed at party activists. Very little is now going to the middle, to the independent voter. And the other thing is Republicans have generally embraced Donald Trump. They are going to live or die with him in this midterm. And he has embraced the central role in the election.

Sarah Zaman: All right, one of the central issues is the economy. America’s economy has been one of the most important indicators of election success. Unemployment is at a near 50-year low. Paychecks reflect tax cuts promoted by the President and the Republican Congress.  And the US economy is expanding at a healthy rate.

VOA Congressional Correspondent Katherine Gypson went to Fargo, North Dakota, to see whether the economy is making a difference with voters:

                                                ((ROLL GYPSON PACKAGE))

 ((NATS - Kid playing a game))

((NARRATOR))

Time for fun and games…

((BRAD RUHRO, LEGACY TOYS))

"We're seeing a continual uptick in customers we're bringing in."

((NATS - Scanner at register))

((NARRATOR))

…a sign that consumers have a little more to spend here in Fargo, North Dakota, says small business owner Brad Ruhro.

((BRAD RUHRO, LEGACY TOYS))

"When the economy's doing better, they're able to spend more on entertainment and fun."

((NARRATOR))

And that means more stores are hiring.

((BRAD RUHRO, LEGACY TOYS))

"It's a very competitive market there are a lot of jobs being offered out there, especially in the retail sectors."

((NARRATOR))

Nationwide, unemployment rates are falling. North Dakota's 2.4 percent is tied for second-lowest among any state.

((NATS - Mall noise))

And people are spending, says one waitress who has noticed an increase in her tips.

((TERESA ERVASTI, WAITRESS)) "I've never done better myself...so."

((NATS - Crop Combine))

((NARRATOR))

But just outside the big city, President Trump's tariffs are causing anxiety for small business owners.

((MARY LEE NIELSON, OWNER, QUILTED CEILING))

"It's a very scary right now I can see where a lot of farmers don't want to spend money at this time."

((NATS - Cash Register))

((NARRATOR)) 

Farm families from all over North Dakota shop here and business is good. But with a farm of her own in addition to the store, Mary Lee Nielson wants President Trump to back off on tariffs that could hurt North Dakota farmers.

((MARY LEE NIELSON, OWNER, QUILTED CEILING))

"It's a double-hit for us with the store and the farm   so it's scary."

((NATS - Monte walking through soybean field))

((NARRATOR)) 

And with the US and China in the midst of a trade war - soybean farmer Monte Peterson says losing the Chinese market will have an immediate impact.

((MONTE PETERSON, NORTH DAKOTA SOYBEAN COUNCIL))

"Crop that doesn't get delivered to market, doesn't generate income." 

((NATS - Smalltown traffic))

((NARRATOR))

The economy looms large here less than two months before the mid-terms - especially with the US senate race so close between Senator Heidi Heitkamp...  

((SENATOR HEIDI HEITKAMP, DEMOCRAT))

"We have an economy in this country where the urban depends on the rural economy."

((NATS - Kevin Cramer: "How are you guys?"))

((NARRATOR))

And her challenger, Congressman Kevin Cramer, hears farmers' concerns about tariffs.

((REP. KEVIN CRAMER, REPUBLICAN))

"What I tell them is good news is coming. We need to look for the good news. We push the administration on a regular basis."

((NARRATOR)) 

Like Republican candidates across the country, Cramer is running on a strong economy and the benefits of the 2017 tax cut bill.

NATS - Kevin Cramer: "We're the optimists in this country."))

((NARRATOR))

While that bill gave North Dakota voters the highest average tax cut of any state, many lower and middle-class workers say they're not feeling it.

((BRADY MITCHELL, NORTH DAKOTA VOTER)) 

"It all goes to daycare or mortgage or goes out the window anyway so no I haven't seen enough of a difference."

((Courtesy: Creedence Energy))

((NARRATOR)) 

Unlike big corporations and oil companies like Creedence Energy which have enjoyed a windfall from Republican tax cuts and a strong economy.

((KEVIN BLACK, CREEDENCE ENERGY))

"We've seen this multiplication effect more people eager to invest in this industry and our area and a result we see a multiplier force across the economy that everybody's growing."

((NARRATOR))

One struggling worker agrees.

((BRIAN ROSS, NORTH DAKOTA VOTER))  

"He's taken some pretty good strides in straightening things out like bringing our jobs back here where they belong."

((NARRATOR))

But will that slowly improving economy be enough to bring voters out to the polls? That's the question this November.

((NATS - Train passing by))

Sarah Zaman: Katherine Gypson is with us now here in Washington. Katherine, great reporting from Fargo. I’m curious, what I saw in the story was even though everybody wants the economy to work well, and it’s a big issue, somehow for urban voters and for rural farm-owning voters, things are shaping up rather differently.

Katherine Gypson, VOA Congressional Correspondent: That’s so right Sarah. You really hit on something that’s so important for North Dakota voters, and that’s that divide between rural and urban. When you go to the cities in North Dakota, there’s a really good feeling about the economy. You walk down the street, you see all the “now hiring” signs; people just feel good. You can see them out shopping and spending. Drive a little bit farther out, get to the farms -- the soybean farms we saw there and they really want to know the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff wars. They want to know, ‘look, we’re harvesting soon. We need to know whether we can actually sell this crop overseas.’ And when I was there in August, there really wasn’t a sense of how that would be resolved yet. And I think the answer to that question will help decide whether or not North Dakota voters go for Republicans in the midterms.

Sarah Zaman: And this also makes the midterm elections so much more important. Because whoever gets control of either one of the Houses [of Congress] could help reshape economic policy, could help reshape this whole issue of a trade war with China.

Jim Malone: Right. And you know one thing I wanted to know is, from your discussions with people: is it the economy that has brought them around to Donald Trump? You went to a pretty Republican state. They seem to have embraced Trump in a lot of ways beyond just the economy.

Katherine Gypson: Absolutely. Beyond the economy, there is a lot of excitement about President Trump’s Supreme Court nomination. That, certainly, a lot of voters told me ‘this is why I voted for Donald Trump in 2016. He’s going to push my issues on the US Supreme Court.’ And just from a general standpoint, when people take a step back and look at the job President Trump is doing two years in, there was this overall good feeling about how he’s advanced issues that are important to them: immigration. I heard in North Dakota, which is thousands of miles away from the US-Mexico border, that his push to build the wall has been really resonating with them. So they feel that he’s there in Washington fighting for their interests.

Sarah Zaman: Ok, thank you, Katherine, for your reporting. For more than 50 years, women have been voting in higher numbers than men. In fact, according to the Center for American Women and Politics, 10-million more women voted in the 2016 election than men did.

VOA correspondent Carolyn Presutti went to Montclair, New Jersey--- just outside New York City --- to find out what issues women there care about.

                ((ROLL PRESUTTI PKG))

 ((NAT of woman yelling))

((NARRATOR))

Women.

White.

and educated.

Experts say they hold the key to this year’s midterms.

((NAT SOUND))

“beet salad please”

((NARRATOR))

Lynn Fedele is a New Jersey high school teacher who holds a Masters degree.  She voted for a third party candidate in the presidential election but will vote Democrat in the midterms.

((LYNN FEDELE, TEACHER))

“I do believe government can do a lot to help with housing inequality and education and environmental protection and should be doing much more.”

((NARRATOR))

For her part, Chris Elliott says she will stay Republican for the midterms because of the immigration issue - even though she now regrets voting for Trump in 2016.

((CHRIS ELLIOTT, RETIRED))  

“I’m an immigrant.  I had to come over here legally and I had to pay to get all my documents. That illegal alien, I’m not for that.”

((NARRATOR))

For small business owners like Kate Smith -- who typically votes independent --, it’s all about the economy.

((KATE SMITH, SMALL BUSINESS OWNER)) 

“I would come down on issues around financial, fiscal responsibility, curbing some government programs, regulatory.”

(((nat of kids on swings w moms))

((NARRATOR))

Pew Research dating back to 1992 shows women lean more toward the Democratic Party than men. In the last presidential race, 54 percent voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.  But a slim majority of white women  --52 percent -- voted for Republican Donald Trump.

Analysts say the Democratic party strategy is to woo back those female voters with candidates who have no political experience.  

((BRIGID CALLAHAN HARRISON, PROFESSOR, MONTCLAIR UNIVERSITY))  

“You’re seeing people with unique skill sets, business people, doctors and scientists that might attract a constituency that is different than kind of a stereotypical liberal woman candidate.”

((NAT OF SHERRILL))

((NARRATOR))

Like Democrat Mikie Sherrill.

((photo of pilot Mikie))

((Mandatory cg: Mikie Sherrill for Congress))

The former Navy pilot is running in a district that hasn’t elected a Democrat in 36 years.  To help, she brought in a crowd pleaser: 

Former Vice President Joe Biden.

((JOE BIDEN, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT))  

“She understands what duty means.  She gets it.”

((MIKIE SHERRILL, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE))   

“From what we’ve seen as far as who comes to our rallies and throws fundraisers, the women’s vote certainly is a key vote here.”

((nat of phoning voters)) 

((NARRATOR))

Republican Jay Webber is her rival.  Webber campaigns on his experience as a state assemblyman.

((nat of advertisement))

((NARRATOR))

((Mandatory cg: Webber for Congress))

His political ad, seems to be aimed at women, by featuring his wife and seven children.  He has also mobilized a group called Women for Webber.

((JAY WEBBER, REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE))   

“Seems to me what women want—in many ways is what men want -- and that’s a thriving economy.”

Sarah Zaman: Carolyn Presutti is with us right now. Carolyn, thank you for joining us. Great reporting. Right now, we know more women are running as candidates than ever before. How energized are women voters, especially about women candidates?

Carolyn Presutti, VOA Correspondent: Well, the women candidates, came up, I think, because of the 2016 election, right? You had a woman running against a man. And President Trump won. So, women said ‘we are going to start running. We’re going to be first-time candidates.’ And they came out of the woodwork, so to speak. I mean, they didn’t have any experience with campaigning, really. They had never run for office before. And of course, the day after the election (should be inauguration) if you remember, we had the women’s march. And that was followed by the Me Too movement. And then you had the hearings for Supreme Court justice Brett Kavanagh and all the accusations against him. So this has snowballed – the momentum for women running and for women voting has increased over the last several months – 24 months. Someone describe it to me as a ‘building crescendo of distasted against the Trump administration.’ That’s what one expert said, and said therein lies the problem.

Jim Malone: I want to ask you about that Carolyn because one of the things driving this Democratic energy that is showing up in all the polls is this concern about the President, a desire to act as a check on the President particularly among the kinds of women you are talking to in New Jersey. Did you get the sense of this intensity that has been building now, especially on the Democratic side?

Carolyn Presutti: Absolutely. In fact, one of the women I spoke to, I said ‘can you rate it for me? Can you give me a one to 10, you know, what is your dislike of the President? She laughed, and she said ‘Can I go higher than 10?’ And I thought ‘oh my goodness.” She said ‘I’m done, I’m throwing in the towel. I can’t support him anymore.’ And that’s what you hear from many women. Now, I have to admit, though, the Republican women are staunch. Those Republicans who have voted Republican for years and years will back the Republicans and they turn to the economy and say ‘look at the economy, it’s doing great. So of course, I’m going to vote for the Republicans.’ The women [Republican] candidates have Trump in their corner. So President Trump will go to those districts, especially those districts that are “red” districts, that are already Republican, and he will stump [campaign] for them. He will support them. And then those women candidates will use those interviews, those announcements by President Trump in their advertisements and that’s how they will get their votes, right, because they’re in a red district. But it’s difficult for those Republicans in swing districts because as one political professor told me, a political science professor, he said ‘it’s difficult when you have the leader of the party not liked’, i.e. President Trump, how do you swing those voters to vote Republican. And therein lies the problem for the Republican Party. 

Sarah Zaman: And we’ll get the answer on November 6th. Thank you so much, Carolyn Presutti. As we talked about, this is a record-breaking year for women as candidates for higher office.

273 women are party nominees for U.S. Senate, House or state governor. And there are more people of color running for office. For Democrats, this is the first time that white men are a minority among the party’s candidates for Congress.

VOA’s Kane Farabaugh went to Detroit, Michigan, where demographic changes will soon be represented in Washington:

                ((ROLL FARABAUGH PKG))

((NARRATOR))

Ahlam Jbara lives in Chicago, Illinois - six hours away from Detroit Michigan - which means she can’t vote in the state’s primary election.

But the race for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District was too important, and personal, for Jbara to miss.  Which is why she drove the six hours to volunteer in Rashida Tlaib’s campaign on election day.

((AHLAM JBARA, Campaign Volunteer))

“As a Muslim American, as an Arab American, as a Palestinian American… I’m her, she’s me.”

((NARRATOR))

Though it’s an election in Michigan, Tlaib’s campaign for Congress has historic, nationwide implications, particularly for Muslim American women, who view Tlaib’s candidacy as a door opening.

((RASHIDA TLAIB, Democrat Congressional Candidate))

“Just getting text messages from young girls, just got one from New York, like “Hi you don’t know me, but my name is Homa, and I just want you to know I’m watching this in New York.  It makes me emotional… just thinking… Oh my god, this is so wonderful… 

((AHLAM JBARA, Campaign Volunteer))

“Rashida is a woman who cares about people at the grassroots level….She’s turning out first-time voters, not just youth, but others who are first-time voters who’ve been American citizens for a long time, even those who are born here but have never voted before because they didn’t have faith in our government.”

((NARRATOR))

Those voters made the difference for Tlaib, something she and her supporters only realized after a long wait into the morning for results of a contest that until the end, was a close race.

((NATURAL SOUND))

“If Detroit’s website is to be believed, we’ve won this race."

((LOUD CHEERING))

((RASHIDA TLAIB, Democrat Congressional Candidate))

“I want to thank my Mom, who is from the West Bank, they are literally glued – it’s like 5:00 in the morning and now it’s more than that – they are glued to the TV&hell